The Pith
The MDC Alliance finally called for a congress
to be held in May 2019 and this has already heated the country’s political
temperatures. As the jostling for positions is already
heating up, there are two names already appearing as front runners despite
that no official nomination has yet taken place. The incumbent, Nelson Chamisa
and Secretary General, Douglass Mwonzora will likely lock horns for the Premiership of the opposition party which
rekindles the 2014 rivalry, when Chamisa lost the Secretary General’s position
to Mwonzora.
Secretary General Douglass Mwonzora |
Beyond the rivalry of these two protagonists, the May 2019
Congress has to be seen as an unresolved succession question and a battle for
the soul of the party. I say so mainly for three reasons: Firstly, the defeat
of the Thokozani Khupe Faction towards the July 2018 elections, did not result
in total surrender but a tactical retreat as some of the sympathisers remained in
the party to fight another day. Secondly, It revives the failed succession plot,
Project 2016 and a close read of characters in the MDC Alliance says it all.
Thirdly, these two historical facts highlighted above are very important in
understanding the current ructions within the opposition as they also morph into
a generational transition happening within the national body politic.
Could it
be Generational?
On my recent trip from Zambia, I overhead the
bus crew discussing MDC Alliance politics. “These guys aren't in the structures
and they are in their late 30s and early 40s. They reasoned: MDC should leave
Chamisa at the presidency. We want someone young like us and Mwonzora should
know it's not his generation.” I asked them what if Chamisa loses? They argued
back and passionately saying “we will tell Chamisa to go and form another party
and vote for him.” To my shock was the whole bus joining the debate in support
of the bus crew. Most of the passengers were cross-border traders, mainly young
women and men in the ages between 20s and 40s. If this is representative of the
nation, which I am tempted to believe so, then it seems some candidates are
misreading history. Beyond this anecdotal observation one has to read the 2018 elections
results, ‘warts and all’; it is crystal clear that the MDC Alliance amassed
more votes in the Presidential than Parliamentary contest. For the first time
the MDC breached the 2 million mark. On the Presidential ballot the MDC
Alliance had a youthful and more appealing candidate. Also, when one reads the
profile of the rallies, it was the young who dominated. On the Parliamentary
ballot, the MDC Alliance underperformed and interesting to note is that most of
its candidates were more older. ZANU PF had a much more youthful candidacy on
the Parliamentary ballot among many other factors, it outperformed its Presidential
ballot which was geriatric. What in interesting to note here, is that the Youth
are demanding their seat on the governance table. Love or hate him, with 70% of
the population being 45yrs and below, Chamisa has no contest in the MDC or the
country. It seems we have a new reality and the Ruling Party, ZANU PF will have
to renew its party, a debate for another day. The Congress is going to be
generational. It appears, the Morgan generation time is over.
Remembering
History: Project 2016
After
the defeat of the MDC in the 2013 elections, there was intense debate on the utility
of continuing with Morgan Tsvangirai as the leader of the party. Overtures were
made to him to retire and create a new role as an ambassador of democracy in
Africa. When those diplomatic manoeuvres failed and Morgan’s kitchen cabinet
prevailed, a lot of young Turks in the opposition were disgruntled. The thinking
that dominated then was that, Tendai Biti would take over from Morgan and
Nelson would follow in line. This group of young Turks were code named project
2016 and later mutated into ‘MDC Renewal’. It had to take the Vanguard to
extinguish Project 2016, after an alleged Judas Iscariot moment within its
ranks. Some would question about the 2014 split, but it is my contention that
argument is moot as it focusses on the after effects of a collapsed project. This
history is important to take note as it explains what appears a ‘newfound’ love
relationship, yet it is one with deep historical roots.
Come
the 2018 elections, Project 2016 is back in the fold, although with variations in
the leadership hierarchy to accommodate for the new realities. Project 2016 was
largely an initiative of former student leaders, civil society activists and
middle class youth. This group was very instrumental in the formation of the
opposition but felt to have been left out of the processes in the party. It is
not surprising that Generational Consensus emerged and became one of the vociferous
groups in support of Nelson Chamisa’s ascendancy and as well reunion of the MDC.
The noisy and rag-tag fit character of Generational Consensus betrayed its
student politics nature, but also proved effective in shaping a new narrative
of ‘nothing for the young without the young’. But one cannot escape from the fact
that convenience, opportunity and history also played a key role in the
formation of the MDC Alliance.
MDC A Rising Hornets |
The coming back together of Tendai Biti, Jacob
Mafume, Job Sikhala, Nelson Chamisa, Charlton Hwende, Settlement Chikwinya,
Prosper Mutseyami, Lovemore Chinoputsa, Clifford Hlatshwayo, plus the new graduands
Joanna Mamombe, Maureen Kademaunga, Gladys Hlatshwayo among many others cannot
be read outside history, convenience and opportunity. This group has expanded beyond
its student character to incorporate the middle class and ghetto youth, thus
morphing into a potent political force that cannot be ignored. This is the
challenge that “Mukoma Dougie” faces and the national demographics have made it
worse.
Die Another
Day, Dougie Bond 007?
In run up to 2018 elections the Khupe Faction
won the battle for the name of the party but this became a symbolic or moot victory.
One of the key backers of Thokozani Khupe then was said to be Douglass
Mwonzora, although he later preferred to stay put and move on with his allies. It
appears then, it was tactical retreat to fight another day by the Khupe
Faction. The Chamisa Faction (read Project 2016) won the structures,
the soul of the party. The 2018 elections results also proved further who won
the heart and soul of the party and an almost repeat scenario of the year 2014
after the split. Two interesting things arise here: On, Mukoma Dougie was
instrumental in the removal of the ‘Renewal Boys and Girls’ (read Project 2016) from parliament.
Two, the remnants of Project 2016 remained in the mainstream MDC and consequently,
Nelson Chamisa was viewed suspiciously by Morgan’s Kitchen Cabinet. Going
towards the 2014 Congress, Nelson Chamisa was poised for a landslide sweep and it
had to take Morgan’s intervention to save Douglass Mwonzora’s political fortunes. Morgan felt threatened by Nelson’s
meteoric rise and thus sought to trim
his ambitions and keep him at bay. Morgan needed a checkmate for Nelson and he
found it in Mukoma Dougie. After Mwonzora’s failure to get nomination from any
province, Morgan had to overrule Manicaland and declare Mwonzora the winner
despite him losing repeated votes. The election at the 2014 Congress was run by
the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions (ZCTU), which was Morgan’s fort and it
played significant role in tilting the fortunes towards Mwonzora. This is not
to say Mwonzora had no agency of his own, but what cannot be ignored is the
Morgan factor in the 2014 congress. Going into the 2018 May congress, the circumstances
have largely changed. In the 2014 congress history, convenience and opportunity
struck but in the favour of Mukoma Dougie. The question that begs: can Mukoma
Dougie play a James Bond 007 and live to fight the May 2018 congress after initially
losing the succession race? It seems this time, history, convenience and
opportunity are stacked against him.
It’s the
Time for New Sprouts?
The reconfiguration of the MDC Alliance cannot
be read outside the notion of time. There are those who have toyed with the idea
that the structures are not in unison with the Tsar. That’s a figment of
imagination from those not wanting to acknowledge the reality. The horse has
already bolted out and it is the time for new sprouts. The political active
population has become very youthful, and by their nature don’t subscribe to Old
Edmund Burke’s ideas of order and rationality used by those opposed to Chamisa.
The youth by nature are abrasive and daring, and will continue to demand a
position at the high table. It is important for one to note that even the ZCTU
that was Morgan’s power base has become a pale shadow of itself after the decimation
of the working class by decades of economic decline. It is now the informal and
unemployed classes that are on the ascendancy and also happens to be youthful. For
this group, the lack of hope for a better Zimbabwe, educated or uneducated,
unites them more as they toil together in Zimbabwe’s informal economy. This is the
base that has taken over the MDC Alliance, hence the rise of Nelson cannot be
read outside this group. The sprouts are green and new political season has
come. Once again, it is history, convenience and opportunity at play.