The Movement for Democratic Change’s Upcoming Congress: Mwonzora’s Moment of Truth?

The Pith

The MDC Alliance finally called for a congress to be held in May 2019 and this has already heated the country’s political temperatures. As the jostling for positions is already heating up, there are two names  already appearing as front runners despite that no official nomination has yet taken place. The incumbent, Nelson Chamisa and Secretary General, Douglass Mwonzora will likely lock horns for  the Premiership of the opposition party which rekindles the 2014 rivalry, when Chamisa lost the Secretary General’s position to Mwonzora. 

Secretary General Douglass Mwonzora

Beyond the rivalry of these two protagonists, the May 2019 Congress has to be seen as an unresolved succession question and a battle for the soul of the party. I say so mainly for three reasons: Firstly, the defeat of the Thokozani Khupe Faction towards the July 2018 elections, did not result in total surrender but a tactical retreat as some of the sympathisers remained in the party to fight another day. Secondly, It revives the failed succession plot, Project 2016 and a close read of characters in the MDC Alliance says it all. Thirdly, these two historical facts highlighted above are very important in understanding the current ructions within the opposition as they also morph into a generational transition happening within the national body politic.

Could it be Generational?

On my recent trip from Zambia, I overhead the bus crew discussing MDC Alliance politics. “These guys aren't in the structures and they are in their late 30s and early 40s. They reasoned: MDC should leave Chamisa at the presidency. We want someone young like us and Mwonzora should know it's not his generation.” I asked them what if Chamisa loses? They argued back and passionately saying “we will tell Chamisa to go and form another party and vote for him.” To my shock was the whole bus joining the debate in support of the bus crew. Most of the passengers were cross-border traders, mainly young women and men in the ages between 20s and 40s. If this is representative of the nation, which I am tempted to believe so, then it seems some candidates are misreading history. Beyond this anecdotal observation one has to read the 2018 elections results, ‘warts and all’; it is crystal clear that the MDC Alliance amassed more votes in the Presidential than Parliamentary contest. For the first time the MDC breached the 2 million mark. On the Presidential ballot the MDC Alliance had a youthful and more appealing candidate. Also, when one reads the profile of the rallies, it was the young who dominated. On the Parliamentary ballot, the MDC Alliance underperformed and interesting to note is that most of its candidates were more older. ZANU PF had a much more youthful candidacy on the Parliamentary ballot among many other factors, it outperformed its Presidential ballot which was geriatric. What in interesting to note here, is that the Youth are demanding their seat on the governance table. Love or hate him, with 70% of the population being 45yrs and below, Chamisa has no contest in the MDC or the country. It seems we have a new reality and the Ruling Party, ZANU PF will have to renew its party, a debate for another day. The Congress is going to be generational. It appears, the Morgan generation time is over.

Remembering History: Project 2016

After the defeat of the MDC in the 2013 elections, there was intense debate on the utility of continuing with Morgan Tsvangirai as the leader of the party. Overtures were made to him to retire and create a new role as an ambassador of democracy in Africa. When those diplomatic manoeuvres failed and Morgan’s kitchen cabinet prevailed, a lot of young Turks in the opposition were disgruntled. The thinking that dominated then was that, Tendai Biti would take over from Morgan and Nelson would follow in line. This group of young Turks were code named project 2016 and later mutated into ‘MDC Renewal’. It had to take the Vanguard to extinguish Project 2016, after an alleged Judas Iscariot moment within its ranks. Some would question about the 2014 split, but it is my contention that argument is moot as it focusses on the after effects of a collapsed project. This history is important to take note as it explains what appears a ‘newfound’ love relationship, yet it is one with deep historical roots.

Come the 2018 elections, Project 2016 is back in the fold, although with variations in the leadership hierarchy to accommodate for the new realities. Project 2016 was largely an initiative of former student leaders, civil society activists and middle class youth. This group was very instrumental in the formation of the opposition but felt to have been left out of the processes in the party. It is not surprising that Generational Consensus emerged and became one of the vociferous groups in support of Nelson Chamisa’s ascendancy and as well reunion of the MDC. The noisy and rag-tag fit character of Generational Consensus betrayed its student politics nature, but also proved effective in shaping a new narrative of ‘nothing for the young without the young’. But one cannot escape from the fact that convenience, opportunity and history also played a key role in the formation of the MDC Alliance. 

MDC A Rising Hornets

The coming back together of Tendai Biti, Jacob Mafume, Job Sikhala, Nelson Chamisa, Charlton Hwende, Settlement Chikwinya, Prosper Mutseyami, Lovemore Chinoputsa, Clifford Hlatshwayo, plus the new graduands Joanna Mamombe, Maureen Kademaunga, Gladys Hlatshwayo among many others cannot be read outside history, convenience and opportunity. This group has expanded beyond its student character to incorporate the middle class and ghetto youth, thus morphing into a potent political force that cannot be ignored. This is the challenge that “Mukoma Dougie” faces and the national demographics have made it worse.

Die Another Day, Dougie Bond 007?

In run up to 2018 elections the Khupe Faction won the battle for the name of the party but this became a symbolic or moot victory. One of the key backers of Thokozani Khupe then was said to be Douglass Mwonzora, although he later preferred to stay put and move on with his allies. It appears then, it was tactical retreat to fight another day by the Khupe Faction. The  Chamisa Faction (read Project 2016) won the structures, the soul of the party. The 2018 elections results also proved further who won the heart and soul of the party and an almost repeat scenario of the year 2014 after the split. Two interesting things arise here: On, Mukoma Dougie was instrumental in the removal of the ‘Renewal Boys and Girls’ (read Project 2016) from parliament. Two, the remnants of Project 2016 remained in the mainstream MDC and consequently, Nelson Chamisa was viewed suspiciously by Morgan’s Kitchen Cabinet. Going towards the 2014 Congress, Nelson Chamisa was poised for a landslide sweep and it had to take Morgan’s intervention to save Douglass Mwonzora’s  political fortunes. Morgan felt threatened by Nelson’s meteoric rise  and thus sought to trim his ambitions and keep him at bay. Morgan needed a checkmate for Nelson and he found it in Mukoma Dougie. After Mwonzora’s failure to get nomination from any province, Morgan had to overrule Manicaland and declare Mwonzora the winner despite him losing repeated votes. The election at the 2014 Congress was run by the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions (ZCTU), which was Morgan’s fort and it played significant role in tilting the fortunes towards Mwonzora. This is not to say Mwonzora had no agency of his own, but what cannot be ignored is the Morgan factor in the 2014 congress. Going into the 2018 May congress, the circumstances have largely changed. In the 2014 congress history, convenience and opportunity struck but in the favour of Mukoma Dougie. The question that begs: can Mukoma Dougie play a James Bond 007 and live to fight the May 2018 congress after initially losing the succession race? It seems this time, history, convenience and opportunity are stacked against him.

It’s the Time for New Sprouts?

The reconfiguration of the MDC Alliance cannot be read outside the notion of time. There are those who have toyed with the idea that the structures are not in unison with the Tsar. That’s a figment of imagination from those not wanting to acknowledge the reality. The horse has already bolted out and it is the time for new sprouts. The political active population has become very youthful, and by their nature don’t subscribe to Old Edmund Burke’s ideas of order and rationality used by those opposed to Chamisa. The youth by nature are abrasive and daring, and will continue to demand a position at the high table. It is important for one to note that even the ZCTU that was Morgan’s power base has become a pale shadow of itself after the decimation of the working class by decades of economic decline. It is now the informal and unemployed classes that are on the ascendancy and also happens to be youthful. For this group, the lack of hope for a better Zimbabwe, educated or uneducated, unites them more as they toil together in Zimbabwe’s informal economy. This is the base that has taken over the MDC Alliance, hence the rise of Nelson cannot be read outside this group. The sprouts are green and new political season has come. Once again, it is history, convenience and opportunity at play.